Field Notes - Sept 29, '25

Executive Signals

Coverage is the new routing: same-week slots beat complex rules engines and time-zone confusion
Guardrails beat heroics: simple LTV math keeps paid spend honest
Traffic up, pipeline flat: quarantine non-ICP to restore signal
Calendars hide revenue: next-month visibility prevents end-of-month booking cliffs without extra clicks
Anomaly vs expected: halo-adjusted baselines before funnel surgery, then investigate residuals

Paid decisions unstick when you enforce simple math. For compliance-heavy segments, hold ≥4:1 LTV:CAC and cap CAC payback around 12 months. Use segment-specific LTVs with a prudent haircut until retention data hardens. Move budget toward exact-match ICP terms and keep a weekly kill list for ad groups and keywords that drift beyond the guardrails.

Pause ad groups exceeding ~12-month payback for two weeks
Apply 20–30% haircut to segment LTVs until cohorts stabilize
Redeploy spend to exact-match ICP once out-of-bounds items are paused

Panic Protocol for Weekly Demand Dips

A near-zero MQL week with flat or rising traffic is either channel math or a leak. Strip out expected factors first: planned paid rebuilds and event halos belong outside the baseline. Then instrument the demo path end-to-end to find residual gaps. Escalate only when the residual persists two weeks or falls materially below recent norms.

Subtract planned paid dips and event halos before declaring an anomaly
Track demo-click → widget open → date shown → slot selected → booked; fix the largest drop-off first
Tripwire: escalate if residual gap persists two weeks or is >2 standard deviations below the 8-week mean

Marketing

Quarantine Non‑ICP Traffic from Forecasts

A few popular posts can flood sessions while MQLs drop. Do not let vanity traffic pollute pipeline math. Tag non‑ICP content, route those visitors to low-cost, context-fit assets, and exclude their contribution from MQL dashboards and forecasts. If behavior stays extreme for weeks, consider hiding or renaming to protect signal.

Exclude tagged non‑ICP content from MQL reporting and forecasting
Replace demo CTAs with context-fit assets for non‑ICP visitors
Consider noindex or rename if bounce-to-MQL stays extreme for 4+ weeks

AI Video Strategy: Mascot First, Then Disclose

If a founder avatar feels risky, ship with a brand mascot. Run the series quietly, then disclose the AI production as a controlled PR moment. Use the reveal to educate on security and ethics while avoiding early deepfake baggage. Keep creative approvals tight so the pipeline moves without costly rework.

Decide on an 8–12 week disclosure window; prep the narrative and FAQs
Gate with script and VO approval before any render
Avoid dual-speaker scenes; use alternating monologues until diarization improves

AI Video Ops: Lock Words Before Pixels

AI video wastes time and GPU when you render too early. Keep assets modular so personas and backgrounds swap without rework. Track per‑minute render costs and cap at the asset and campaign levels. Precision in copy and VO is cheaper than fixes in pixels.

Approve messaging and VO pre‑render; target approval→render ratio <1.2x
Maintain compositing layers to swap personas or backgrounds in minutes
Track per‑minute render cost; enforce hard caps per asset and per campaign

Sales

Show the Next Month to Protect Bookings

End‑of‑month calendars that hide next month behind an extra click suppress bookings. One hidden week equals fewer demos. Default to a rolling next‑30‑days view and preload the first week of the next month so buyers never hit a dead end.

Default to rolling 21–30 days; preload early next‑month slots
Measure widget drop‑off; target <20% loss from demo‑click to date‑selected
If multiple sellers, pool calendars and route to first available

Same‑Week Intent Coverage Beats Fancy Routing

Buyers try to book and buy in the same week. If only evenings or a single midday slot are visible, conversion craters. Hold local-time coverage and fast‑track holds before buying complex routing software. Upgrade routing only when a sales leader demands territory rules, and fund it from the sales budget.

Maintain 8am–6pm requester‑local coverage Mon–Thu with daily fast‑track holds
Set an availability SLA so ≥90% of visitors see a slot within 48 hours
Delay advanced routing until territory rules are required; fund from sales budget

Field Notes